Meteorological Drought Assessment for Jhelum River Basin, Jammu and Kashmir\'s Sangam and Ram Munshi Bagh Stations

Abstract

Drought is a severe natural calamity that harms the global ecology. To examine drought conditions including intensity and duration, a variety of drought indicators (DIs) are commonly employed. This study assesses the occurrences of drought in Kashmir\'s Jhelum River Basin (JRB) at the Sangam and Ram Munshi Bagh stations. Several DI approaches, such as Deciles, Percent of Normal (PN), and Standardized Precipitation Index (Normal-, Log-, and Gamma-SPI), are used to analyse 20 years of monthly recorded precipitation data from 2002 to 2023. Every technique is used on the annual long-term precipitation data set. The findings indicate that nearly identical outcomes are obtained for the stations by the DI approaches. While the normal-SPI indicates rainy and less droughty conditions, the log-SPI and gamma-SPI forecast moderate dry conditions. The results emphasize that the PN method predicts more moderate drought years in comparison with SPI method, however, Deciles method shows longer period of extreme and severe drought than other methods. As a result, the five methods indicate various drought intensities in 2017, 2018,2001, and 2002 with a peak moderate drought in 2017 in the Sangam station. The Ram Munshi Bagh station area experienced the less drought conditions from 2002 to 2023 with a moderate drought in 2017 and 2018 as well. Therefore, moderate drought conditions happened in 2017 -2018 in both stations confirm to the recorded drought reports for the same region.

Introduction

I. INTRODUCTION

A complex environmental phenomenon, drought is typically described as a period of time during which there is less water available than usual and a negative impact on the local economy, ecology, wildlife, agriculture, and social and cultural life [Zarei et al., 2016; Sirdas, 2003]. In different parts of the world, a variety of drought indices have been established as instruments for drought monitoring and assessment. By combining one or more data variables, such as precipitation and evapotranspiration, into a single numerical value, drought indices are quantitative assessments that establish the degree and intensity of the drought [Yacoub and Tayfur, 2016]. The most widely used drought indices are Palmer Drought Severity Index and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which are both utilized globally. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI),is  used in the United States; Deciles Index, commonly used in Australia; China-Z Index (CZ), used in China; and Percent of Normal (PN), used globally, all have uses, but using them alone is not a helpful approach. To calculate the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), precipitation and evapotranspiration data are needed. The majority of DI techniques are typically introduced for a particular region. As a result, no relevant scientific study or article exists that suggests a particular approach or analysis for the drought circumstances in Kashmir.

In fact that Kashmir has experienced very low drought throughout the past 20 years, no published scientific research has assessed the drought indices in Kashmir because of its abundant water resources but a majority of areas are rainfed

The purpose of this study is to assess the historical drought and compare the efficacy of various DI techniques in the Kashmir’s Jhelum River Basin. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) with three statistical distribution types (normal, log-normal, and gamma SPI), percent of normal (PN), and deciles are the DI methods used in this work. These techniques need monthly precipitation data that has been taken from the IMD Rambagh Srinagar.

II. METHODOLOGY

The Kashmir valley lies between latitude 330 and 350 N and longitude 730 and 760 E. The valley is 100 km (62mi) wide and covers 15,520,3 km2 (5,992.4 sq. mi) in area. It is bounded by sub-ranges of the Western Himalayas. The great Himalayas bound it in the northeast and separate it from the Tibetan Plateau whereas the Pir-Panjal Range in the Lesser Himalayas bounds it on the west and south, and separate it from the Punjab Plains. The Kashmir Valley has a moderate climate, which is largely defined by its geographic location, with the towering Karakoram Range in the north, Pir Panjal Range in the south and west, and Zanaskar Range in the east.

References

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Copyright

Copyright © 2023 Dr. Bashir Ahmad Pandit. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.