Compilation and Assessment of Econometric Models of Employment Factors in the Republic of Uzbekistan

Abstract

Based on official statistics, the article performed an econometric modeling of macroeconomic indicators, characterized by the ratio of employment to the total number of economically active population for the period 2000–2018. On the base of time series, the parameters of the autoregressive model are found, the economic forecast and the level of employment for 2019-2021 are calculated, when the current trends in the national labor market remain unchanged. The analysis shows that in the national economy the number of unemployed is growing in parallel with the number of employed due to the lack of proportionality in the number of created new jobs.

Introduction

I. INTRODUCTION

Nowadays, the Republic of Uzbekistan is moving to a new stage of development in the social, economic and spiritual spheres. The transition of the republic to market relations prepared the ground for a radical renewal of the economy. These changes were initially manifested through labor relations, which created the need for the formation and development of the labor market. The labor market occupies an important place in the system of economic relations. The labor market, which is considered an important component of the system of economic relations, is formed and operates on the basis of certain laws. The development of this market activity is of great importance in solving the employment problems of the population.

In this regard, the Law "On Employment of the Population" [2] and the Labor Code of the Republic of Uzbekistan [3] are important legal bases in the process of forming the labor market in our country. Unemployment, the right to choose the form of employment, guarantees of social protection against unemployment were recognized in these legal documents. The aforementioned regulatory documents are an important basis for ensuring employment of the population while improving their well-being.

However, despite the guarantee specified in the cited law and code, in 2017, "Although there is a need to employ 1.5 million people per year in our country, last year Employment Assistance Centers employed only 248 thousand people or 16.5 percent of them." The main reason for this is related to outdated forms and methods of work and formality in solving employment problems" [1]. This mentioned situation requires paying special attention to the issue of ensuring the balance of the labor market and infrastructure development in our country, reducing the level of unemployment, and determines the relevance of the chosen topic.

This is necessary for the improvement of the labor market in the conditions of macroeconomic stabilization of the current economy, the solution of employment within the framework of the market relations system, that is, the actual demand and supply of labor force, the formation of new mechanisms for the regulation of employment and the effective distribution of labor force, and the free movement of the labor force. - it is important to create conditions and improve the mechanism of effective distribution of labor force in the labor market.

The labor market, like all markets, is formed on the basis of supply and demand. In this case, the demand appears as the need to occupy vacant positions, and the offer is the presence of unoccupied labor force or the desire to change the workplace. Satisfying supply and demand is carried out, on the one hand, through the competitive struggle between workers to occupy one or another job position, and on the other hand, between employers to attract the labor force with the required number and skills. A number of conditions must be met for a fair resolution of this struggle. In this case, the mobility of the labor force and the appropriate deployment of production forces are considered to be important conditions.

Therefore, in the state financial-credit, investment and tax policies, it is necessary to envisage the implementation of other measures that help to encourage the organization of small enterprises, use flexible work procedures, preserve and develop jobs.

In this regard, in-depth study of the labor market, scientific research and analysis of the factors affecting it are required. It is necessary to specify the external and internal factors affecting the labor market.

Market principles and the transformation of social and labor relations, forming new mechanisms for the regulation of population employment and the effective distribution of labor power, are creating new trends in the field of labor. A number of measures in this regard:

1. determining the essence of the labor market as an economic category;
2. to reveal its features by researching the theoretical foundations of the labor market;
3. to determine the factors affecting the demand and supply of labor force in the labor market, to evaluate their position;
4. To analyze the measures of the state in the field of increasing the employment of the population in the Republic of Uzbekistan and to develop an econometric model of the mechanism aimed at achieving the effective distribution of labor force;
5. It is required to develop practical recommendations aimed at researching the youth labor market in Uzbekistan and increasing its efficiency and putting it into practice.

Due to the sedentary lifestyle of the local population due to our national characteristics, the attempt to develop regional labor markets in our country is of particular importance. In this regard, first of all, it is necessary to pay attention to the age structure of the population of the republic. Researches show that nowadays, in order to ensure the employment of the population, it is appropriate to take into account not only the graduates of secondary special and higher educational institutions, but also the large number of unemployed people (especially among women) among the middle-aged population, that is, around 40-50 years of age. Because the people of this age group have a certain level of experience in their specialties and are comfortable up to retirement age, as well as having opportunities to teach their experience to young people, this is the achievement of the population of this layer. Compared to 1991, the number of working people under 40-50 years of age increased to 3693.8 thousand in 2017, of which 1868 thousand are women. In short, the decrease in the number of employed people, the serious change in the composition of employment in economic sectors, and the expansion of the scope of informal employment are reflected.  It is extremely important to determine the laws of the formation of these processes, to correctly organize the distribution of local labor resources among economic sectors, to ensure proportionality in relation to the population in the planning of newly established enterprises, to develop programs to structurally change the population's employment. Implementation of the mentioned tasks, in turn, is of great importance in ensuring the employment of the country's population.

In our opinion, the state policy in the field of job creation in our country should be developed on the basis of concrete methods, like foreign countries, to reduce unemployment and increase the employment of the population with socially necessary work. For this, we think it is necessary to take into account the following measures:

a. stimulation of investments made by the state in the economy, which is the main condition for creating new jobs; - giving tax incentives to entrepreneurs and small business enterprises when new workplaces are established;

b. encourage self-employment with socially necessary work;

c. creation of conditions based on the stimulation of investment activity in small business and family business, which is being studied as an important method of ensuring employment of the population in many countries;

d. vocational training, retraining and providing information-consulting services to persons who are unemployed due to structural changes or are at risk of losing their jobs;

e. development of labor exchanges and employment services mediating in the labor market, collection and analysis of information on vacant jobs in order to reduce frictional unemployment and unemployment related to structural changes (information and consultation centers;

f. allocating compensations to employers to cover costs related to creating workplace conditions for special groups of the population - young people, disabled people, people with limited ability to work;

g. creating a socio-economic environment that provides material incentives for competence and creative attitude to work;

h. assisting families to move from labor intensive areas to vacant areas by providing subsidies and loans when necessary;

i. international cooperation in solving employment problems, solving issues related to international labor migration;

j. creation of jobs in the public sector - education, medical services, utilities, construction of public buildings and facilities.

References

[1] Report of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev at the extended meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers dedicated to the main results of socio-economic development of our country in 2016 and the most important priorities of the economic program for 2017 // Xalq sozi, January 16, 2017, No. 11 (6705). [2] Law of the Republic of Uzbekistan \"On providing employment to the population\". (new edition) -Tashkent.: Sharq, 1998. [3] Labor Code of the Republic of Uzbekistan. -T.: Justice, 1996. -256 p. [4] Anderson, B., Ruhs, M., Rogaly, B., and Spencer, S. (2006). \"Fair enough?\" Central and Eastern European migrants in low-wage employment in the UK\", COMPAS. http://www.irr.org.uk/pdf/Fair_Enough.pdf [5] Altorjai, S. (2013). \"Over-qualification of immigrants in the UK\", Institute for Social and Economic Research. University of Essex. https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/workingpapers/iser/2013-11.pdf [6] Roger Lowenstein. An excellent description of the academic debate over how to measure the labor market impact of immigration and how this discussion has influenced the U.S. policy debate. \"The Immigration Equation,\" New York Times Magazine, 2006 July 9. [7] Abdurakhmanov K.Kh. Labor economy (textbook). - T.: Work. - 2009. -512 p. [8] Kholmo\'minov Sh.R., Arabov N.U. Labor market infrastructure. Instruction manual. -T.: Science and technology, 2016. p. 150-155. [9] https://iqtisodiyot.tsue.uz/

Copyright

Copyright © 2023 Ortiqov Shavkat Muhammadiyevich. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.