Crime Mapping and Forecasting Using Geospatial Techniques: A Case of Ajmer

Abstract

Advances in computer technology, the development of GIS application software, and the ability to access various geographic data through open-source data sources have allowed police and law enforcement agencies to use it effectively. Crime mapping and spatial analysis using GIS tools such as hotspot generation, zoning, crime navigation and profiling, mobile location recognition, and various web applications are clearly recognized and can be scientifically applied to improve citizenship while being effectively used to predict and control crime. The present study analyzed the trends and patterns of crime data (murder, rape, robbery, theft, kidnapping, engraving, and gambling) in Ajmer Zone from 2015–2022 (till October) to understand the trends of crime data (IPC crime registered). I also used the demographic data of Ajmer to understand crime trends towards various crime types The study focused on the most common crimes reported, which were theft and gambling, as opposed to murder, rape, kidnapping, and robbery. All crimes were reported in 1,009 incidents in 2015. In 2016, 1,064 cases were recorded. In 2017, 1081 cases were reported. In 2018, 1034 cases were reported. In 2019, 1415 cases were reported. In 2020, 829 cases were reported. In 2011, 1120 cases were reported. In 2022, 1268 cases were reported. The highest number of cases occurred in 2017, 2019, and 2022, and the lowest number of cases occurred in 2015 and 2016. According to the crime study for 2015–2022 (till October), I found that many areas where crime is increasing or that are crime hotspots are found every year.

Introduction

I. INTRODUCTION

Crimes committed or resolved in a given time frame may not be particularly effective. In India the majority of Indian states, crime mapping is done physically to aid in locating Suspects and determining their method of operation. It helps the police identify locations where a specific suspect or suspects are active. A crime is an action carried out by a person or group of people that is immoral, damaging, and unsocial to the community. Illiteracy, poverty, and Vengeance can lead to crime (Ansari & Kale, 2014).

Today, nobody is safe. There are many criminals in the world, and criminal activity is increasing globally nowadays. Due to advances in science and technology, criminals are no adopting scientific methods to carry out their crimes, which have left the police perplexed.

I took into consideration a variety of crimes in this study, including robbery, theft, kidnapping, Rape, murder, and other crimes. The crime incidences are recorded based on coordinates using GPS system and fed using a tool so as to generate maps with color coding for crime analysis.

The basic idea of this is that it does not only curb the crime but can also provide a quick response by the police. Patrolling units that are nearby. The system that is used for capturing, storing, and converting .Data format, exploring and displaying geospatial data is known as Geographic Information.

System (GIS). Crime patterns change over space and time in an area, and hence they are of immense

Help police by using GIS maps and spatial crime patterns to capture and study the patterns.

For better crime control (Pramod Kumar, Ravikumar, & Soma, 2012). The present study focuses

On to identifying crime-prone zones through crime mapping with a probability of occurrence

Based on past incidences of various crimes

II. LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Field survey data has been collected for seven year (2015-2022till October) with respect to certain crimes. Many other aspects like suicide, juvenile delinquency, molestation have not been covered in this study. The socio-economic data was available only for one-year 2011, thus it has been taken as a base year due to paucity of data for the years

III. STUDY AREA

Ajmer is one of the oldest cities in the Indian states of Rajasthan. Ajmer is surrounded by Aravalli mountains. Ajmer city is head quarter of Ajmer district and is a popular religious and tourist place. The city was founded by Raja Ajay Pal Chauhan in the 7th century A.D. and continued to be a major center of Chauhan power till 1193A.D. When Prithvi raj Chauhan lost it to Mohmmed Gauri. Since then, Ajmer is a popular pilgrimage center for the Hindus as well as Muslims. Ajmer geographically lies nearly in the center of Rajasthan (India) between 250 38’ to 26058’ North latitudes and 75054’ to 75022’ East longitudes.

The Ajmer city is divided into 80 wards for which elections are held every 5 years. Ajmer has a population of 542,321 peoples (census2011)

Some of the specific socioeconomic factors that have been found to be associated with crime include:

1. Poverty: Individuals and families living in poverty are more likely to be involved in criminal activity than those with higher incomes. This may be due to a lack of economic resources and opportunities, as well as other factors such as poor education, lack of stable housing, and exposure to crime and violence.
2. Unemployment: High levels of unemployment can lead to poverty and financial strain, and have been linked to increased rates of criminal activity.
3. Education: Individuals with lower levels of education are more likely to be involved in criminal activity than those with higher levels of education. Poor education can limit job opportunities and economic mobility, which may contribute to criminal behaviour.
4. Housing: Poor or overcrowded housing conditions can contribute to increased stress and crime. Communities with higher rates of concentrated poverty, tend to have higher rates of criminal activity. Family Structure: Children from broken homes, or those who grow up in households with a history of criminal behaviour are more likely to engage in criminal activity themselves.

It's important to note that socioeconomic factors do not fully explain criminal behaviour, and there are many other factors that contribute to criminal activity, including individual characteristics such as impulsivity, aggression, and mental health issues. Additionally, the relationship between socioeconomic factors and crime is complex, and further research is needed to fully understand the mechanisms by which these factors contribute to criminal activity.

Social injustice shows itself in crime. It is an unlawful act that violates state law and is strongly criticized by the general public. Any behaviour that violates the law and is punished by imprisonment or monetary fines is referred to as a crime. Crimes include murder, robbery, burglary, rape, drunk driving, abuse of children, and failing to pay taxes.

Conclusion

As crime is a human phenomenon, gathering data on it requires connecting the local population with the police and other security agencies that are already in place. Because crime maps assist police in identifying issues at the block level, crime mapping and analysis are considered significant tools for the research and control of crime. The use of informationtechnology is the most effective tool in law enforcement. Based on the availability of the dataon crime in the city, we conducted crime mapping and analysis for the Ajmer Tehsil for sevenyears, from 2015 to 2022 (till October), in the current study. After examining the crime case in the study region that has been selected, that is, Ajmer city,the conclusion was made with an in-depth study of the data collected from all police stations,the control room, and the IPC Department. The population is increasing and developing year by year in Ajmer, due to which crimes related to crime are also increasing. Criminals are attracted to high density population areaswhere the majority of people live. The study focused on the most common crimes reported, which were theft and gambling, as opposed to murder, rape, kidnapping, and robbery. All crimes were reported in 1,009 incidents in 2015. In 2016, 1,064 cases were recorded. In 2017, 1081 cases were reported. In 2018, 1034 cases were reported. In 2019, 1415 cases were reported. In 2020, 829 cases were reported. In 2011, 1120 cases were reported. In 2022, 1268 cases were reported. The highest number of cases occurred in 2017, 2019 and 2022, and the lowest number of cases occurred in 2015 and 2016. Crime forecasting refers to the basic process of predicting crimes before they occur. In excel Microsoft office use forecast linear technique. I estimated the forecasting crime value of 2023 to 2025 years. These four police stations—Alwar Gate, Civil Line, Ramganj, and Christian Ganj—registered more major cases than the other police stations. The highest cases are in Christian Ganj, andthe lowest crime is registered in Adarsh Nagar. Christian Ganj\\\'s main hotspots were found atHari Bhau Uppadhay Nagar, Rati Dang, Makarvali, and near Shastri Nagar. Major theft case locations were registered in crowded places and on narrow roads.

References

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Copyright

Copyright © 2023 Kajal Yadav. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.