Rainfall Intensity Variations at Different Metrological Stations of Kashmir Valley

Abstract

Rainfall being an important source of water and natural source of recharge for ground water, lakes and rivers etc., its variation forms an important subject of Study. The variation of rainfall has a direct influence on the output of agriculture, occurrence of floods and design of hydraulic structures. Earlier the variation of rainfall could not be studied with precision but the developments in the metrology science have, however, rendered the study possible and precise. The present work study involves study of temporal and spatial variation of monthly seasonal and annual rainfall data of six stations of Kashmir valley for the period 1991 to 2020, which has been used for the determination of various rainfall-time graphs. The rainfall time curves been further used to determine the trend of pattern in temporal and spatial variation and precipitation forecasting and to determine the periods of maximum and minimum rainfall and also stations of maximum and minimum rainfall. The study also involves frequency analysis of rainfall data which forms the basis for flood forecasting and design of hydraulic structures. The monthly variation curves show a peak in March and July and two values on June and October. March is the month of peak rainfall and average value of 181.70 mm, while October is the month of lowest with an average of 38.74 mm. Spring season contributes major portion to the total annual rainfall while autumn contributes the least. The frequency distribution chart of mean annual rainfall of Kashmir valley shows the maximum value in the rainfall intensity range 1000-1250 mm, which means that probability of annual rainfall in Kashmir valley is maximum in the range 1000-1250mm. The annual rainfall in Kashmir valley has an average value of 1140mm. The observes and forecasted values of annual rainfall show a very little percentage of error.

Introduction

I. INTRODUCTION

 With the rapid growth of human population and strained resource particularly as regards to food production and water supply for people and for agriculture and industry, the study of variations in the rainfall over a region is of utmost importance. Agriculture is one of the most important activity engaging more than 70% of the population in Kashmir. The success or failure of crops in any year is closely linked with the behaviour of the winter rainfall or snowfall. In order to increase agricultural production effective utilization of water resources is of prime importance. Rainfall is the major parameter influencing agricultural activities and its analysis is thus an important prerequisite for agricultural planning in Kashmir.

Rainfall being the predominant form of precipitation causing stream flow resulting in floods in majority of rivers. The damage caused by floods in terms of loss of life, property, and economic loss due to disruption of economic activities are all too well known. Thousands of crores of rupee are spent every year in flood control and flood forecasting. But, for flood analysis, rainfall analysis is the basic requirement, so the study of rainfall variations could help us come up with remedial measures. All the methods of flood estimation such as rational method, Unit hydrograph method and flood frequency method require analysis of rainfall data so that flood discharge can be estimated. Flood forecasting is also done on the basis of rainfall data analysis by which the damages caused by floods can be reduced.

Various hydraulic structures such as rain water harvesting systems, drainage systems, etc, are designed on the basis of rainfall and runoff which is estimated by rainfall analysis. Hydraulic structures for flood control such as dams, reservoirs, bunds, diversion canals, etc, are also designed on the basis of rainfall analysis.

The present study deals with rainfall variation on monthly, seasonal and annual basis for the six stations of Kashmir valley. The data for the study was collected from Indian Metrological Department. The data is presented with various rainfall-time curves and frequency distribution diagrams. The curves show the peak and low rainfall and frequency of particular intensity of rainfall. The average values of Kashmir valley are 1140mm.

Conclusion

The following conclusions can be drawn from the study: 1) The monthly variation of rainfall intensity is almost same at all stations i.e., all the curves shows two peaks in March and July and two valleys in June and October. 2) Monthly maximum rainfall occurs in the month of March and minimum rainfall occurs in the month of October for all stations and for mean monthly rainfall of whole Kashmir valley except Srinagar where minimum rainfall occurs in November. 3) Kupwara station has the highest average rainfall (174.40 mm) of all the stations while Srinagar station has the lowest (105.65 mm). 4) The correlation trends of rainfall are different for different stations .

References

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Copyright

Copyright © 2023 Dr. Bashir Ahmad Pandit. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.