Understanding Demographic Dynamics: A Case of Chinhat, Lucknow

Abstract

Demographics play a vital role in the development of any area. Demographic dynamics depict the decision-making capacity of governance, hence it’s a vital part of predicting the future growth of an area in terms of its socio-economic context. The demography of an area can also help in understanding the cultural aspect and how it is being oriented in the built environment. The paper talks about the demographic dynamics of Lucknow and its ward level of integration to help understand the local area-specific ward-level population change concerning the city. Different mapping techniques are used to understand the population distribution along ward 35 which is a peri-urban region of the city where the rural context was available within the municipal boundary such as agricultural fields as well as semi-pucca houses and its context in an urban area are the most difficult to segregate in terms of urban planning development scenario. In local area planning of any ward level integration demography becomes the most vulnerable topic to analyse due to lack of data on population from the past resources due to a mismatch of ward numbers from the district census handbook of Lucknow from 1991 to 2011 and planning for 2022 with lack of 2021 data has become a huge difficulty. So, the paper analyses every data with proper alignment and manual survey conducted in ward 35 in favour of local area development proposals. This concludes the paper with the way forward to investigate the population dynamic for every ward of Lucknow for the urban planning community.

Introduction

I. INTRODUCTION

Demography is the study of the human population of a country or a place. Demographer uses census data, surveys, and statistical models to analyse the size, and movement of the population over spaces and time and to study the structure of the population.(Demography | National Geographic Society, n.d.). Population is dynamic and keeps on changing depending upon the major factors which are fertility, mortality, migration, change in administrative city limits and change in job opportunities. The population is generally recorded under government-registered birth and death records. In India, the Census of India is the largest and single source of a variety of statistical information available for collecting and keeping records of different characteristics of the people of India.  The first census calculation was conducted in 1881 under the classification of demographic, economic and social characteristics of the entire continent of India except Kashmir and French and Portuguese colonies. For planning purposes knowing and understanding the population structure is very crucial. The number of people in a given boundary can increase and decrease which may affect the capacity of that given boundary. Knowing factors like age range, dynamics of migrations, and homogeneity of the population is very 1important for planners for planning different types of services. For planning purposes, to know the future population or the upcoming expected population; methods of population estimations are carried forward. Generally, Population projections are calculations of the future birth rate, death rate and migration of the population based on their past and present conditions. Here the population projection for the planning of Ward 35- CHINHAT arithmetic increase method has been used.

Population Size: The most elementary demographic parameter is the number of individuals within a population. The population size is defined as the number of individuals present in a subjectively designated geographical range. Despite the simplicity of its concept, locating all individuals during a census (a full count of every individual) is nearly impossible, so ecologists usually estimate population size by counting individuals within a small sample area and extrapolating that sample to the larger population. Regardless of the challenges in measuring population size, it is an important characteristic of a population with significant implications for the dynamics of the population as a whole. Populations display distinctive behaviours based on their size. Small populations face a greater risk of extinction. Large populations experience their problems. As they approach the maximum sustainable population size, known as carrying capacity, large populations show characteristic behaviour. Populations nearing their carrying capacity experience greater competition for resources(Lucknow Industrial Development Authority, 2015).

Population Density:It is a complete description of a population’s size including the population density - the size of a population about the amount of space that it occupies.

Density is usually expressed as the number of individuals per unit area. Birth and immigration — the influx of new individuals from other areas — can increase a population's density, while death and emigration — the movement of individuals out of a population to other areas — can decrease its density(LUCKNOW CENSUS OF INDIA 2001 LUCKNOW, n.d.).

Age Structure:Not all individuals contribute equally to a population. Occasionally, researchers find it useful to characterize the different contributions made by different individuals. This data can provide information on preferences and trends among age groups and help policymakers to orient social programs, like healthcare or child support(Handbook, 2011).

Sex Ratio:The measure of several males and females within a population constructs a sex ratio, which helps to predict population growth or decline. Much like population size, sex ratio is a simple concept with major implications for population dynamics. Number of females per 1,000 males in a population(LUCKNOW CENSUS OF INDIA 2001 LUCKNOW, n.d.).

Literacy Rate:The literacy rate of the population is defined as the percentage of literates in the age group seven years and above. For different age groups the percentage of literates in that age group gives the literacy rate(LUCKNOW CENSUS OF INDIA 2001 LUCKNOW, n.d.). A person age 7 years and above who can both read and write with understanding in any language is taken as literate. A person who can only read but cannot write is not literate. It is not necessary that to be considered literate, a person should have received any formal education or passed any minimum educational standard. Literacy could also have been achieved through adult literacy classes or any non-formal educational system. People who are blind and can read in Braille are treated as literate. (LUCKNOW CENSUS OF INDIA 2001 LUCKNOW, n.d.).

Work Force participation rate:A person who worked for less than six months of the reference period (i.e. in the last year preceding the date of enumeration) in any economic activity is termed a ‘Marginal worker’. A person who has worked for a major part of the reference period (i.e. six months or more during the last year preceding the date of enumeration) in any economically productive activity is termed as a ‘Main worker’. Therefore percentage of workers (main + marginal) to the total population. (LUCKNOW CENSUS OF INDIA 2001 LUCKNOW, n.d.)

II. DISCUSSION

A. Population Distribution of the City

As per Census of India 2011, Lucknow City’s total population is 28.17 lakh(Handbook, 2011). The population of the study area as per Census of India 2011 is 0.31 lakh. The total study area of Lucknow Municipal Corporation is 350 sq. km and the population density is 8049 P/sq.km ward 35 is 5.03 sq. km and the population density is 63.03 P/sq.km.

The population projection of Lucknow Municipal Corporation has been projected through the arithmetical increase method to forecast the population for the upcoming three decades.

Source: Census 2001,2011

Lucknow has always been the centre of administration, trade and culture, hence being the epitome of industrial development. Lucknow is known for household and small industries however lacks in attracting large and medium-scale industries. There are nearly six major industrial industries in Lucknow city based on agro base, cotton textile, jute base, leather etc(January 2015, 2015).

List of the units in Lucknow & nearby Area:

1. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, Faizabad Road, Lucknow.
2. Scooter India Ltd. (Govt. of India Undertaking), Sarojini Nagar Industrial Estate, Lucknow.
3. Tata Motors Ltd., Deva Road, Chinhat, Lucknow.             

List of the units in Lucknow and near By Area:

1. UP Asbestos Ltd., Mohanlalganj, Lucknow.
2. Varuna Spinning Mills (P) Ltd., Kanpur Road, Lucknow.
3. Eveready Industries (India) Ltd., Talkatora Road, Lucknow.
4. Shyam Vanaspati Ltd., Industrial Area, Amausi, Lucknow.
5. Organics India (P) Ltd., Kamta, Faizabad Road, Chinhat, Lucknow.
6. Omax Auto Ltd., Tata Vendor Park, Chinhat, Lucknow.
7. Amar Ujala Publication Ltd., B-5 Industrial Area, Amausi, Lucknow.
8. Samradhi Cement Ltd., Raibereilly Road, Lucknow
9. Tata Marcopolo Motor Ltd., Chinhat Industrial Area, Lucknow.
10. PTC Industries, Alambagh, Lucknow.

((Micro, 2016)

Ward 35 and nearby areas have dominant small-scale businesses like pottery, cooler making, utensil manufacture, folding bed, bedding materials etc. The major economic indulgence is in agriculture.

Conclusion

Demographic dynamics plays a vital role in the development of a city. It is very important to understand the population of a city for the developmental purpose of infrastructure. As a matter of fact infrastructure planning gets disrupted without the proper understanding of the demographic profile of a city. Lucknow being the capital of Uttar Pradesh has its unique culture and historic background. From the above study the overall inference that is gained from the study analysis of Ward 35, Chinhat of Lucknow is that the ratio of male: to female in LMC is 5:2.The ratio of males: to female in Ward 35 is 5:1.In Ward 35 female workers are less than LMC .The ratio of male: female marginal workers in ward 35 is. From 2001 to 2011 it is seen that there is a rise in 1600 and the main worker is 1045. Hence it is observed that there is a rise in female employment .Inference: In ward 35 the number of marginal workers has increased from 2001 to 2011. It is seen that there is a rise by 1600 female marginal workers and female main workers is 1045. Hence it is observed that there is a rise in female employment.

References

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Copyright

Copyright © 2023 Ar. Tanima Bhowmik, Ar. Arnab Chowdhury. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.